Obama and the Bradley Effect

The Obama presidential campaign crowed over a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll that shows Obama with a 12% lead over Senator John McCain.

But before the Obamanation counts their chickens before they hatch, one must remember the 1982 campaign of Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American Democrat, when he ran for California Governor against George Deukmejian.

Many late polls showed Bradley leading Deukmejian. However, on election day, Bradley was unexpectedly defeated. This defeat came after voters told pollsters that they preferred the black candidate.

In this year's California Primary, Obama lost by a landslide 10 percentage points after a late survey showed him ahead by 13 points and other polls gave him a smaller lead. They began to fear that The Bradley Effect had resurfaced.

Now we are seeing Obama with leads over McCain, but before the Obama partisans begin measuring the White House draperies, they need to remember that polls involving major black candidates, considered shoo-ins, have a tendency to be badly in error.

Should this happen again, Obama's chickens would be (as his former pastor said) coming home to roost.