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Monday, July 25, 2016

Trump's Convention Bounce

This afternoon, I received an email from Revive America PAC (political action committee) which read, in part:
Donald Trump has gotten huge bounce in the polls coming out of Cleveland. 
According to a CNN poll, Trump now leads Hillary Rodham Clinton 44% to 39% — a massive "6-point convention bounce”. 
CNN: “There hasn’t been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN’s polling since 2000.” 
What’s more, the CNN poll isn’t an outlier.  Here are four additional polls showing a big Trump bounce nationwide:  
-USC Dornsife / La Times Presidential Election Poll has Trump up 45 to 41; 
-Morning Consult poll has Trump leading 44 to 40; 
-Gravis, which does not include third-party candidates, has Trump up 51 to 49; 
-CBS has Trump up by 1-point. 
With the Democrats in complete disarray in Philly, the bad news for Hillary just keeps getting worse. 
Even in the battleground state of Ohio, Trump now LEADS Clinton by 3-points (42% - 39%).   
According to Public Policy Polling (PPP), "the tightening of the race has come completely thanks to Trump consolidating his support among Republican voters. 
Where he had only a 66/15 advantage with them in June, he's now ahead 82/9…  
When PPP last polled Ohio in June Clinton led 44/40.”

But, as they said in their email:
This is all cheerful news, but let’s not kid ourselves.  This election is far from over.

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