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Tuesday, May 3, 2022

A 30% Chance of Rain Doesn’t Mean What You Think

Above, storm clouds over the mesas. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

It is interesting that KRQE in Albuquerque is posting this article now, as we are in a drought and there's wildfires happening in New Mexico now.

But, it does clarify how precipitation chances are calculated. This is something new even to me.

They begin it with:

(NEXSTAR) – You turn on the local news in the morning or open your phone’s weather app and you see there’s a 30% chance of rain in the forecast.

You (quite reasonably) take that to mean there’s a 30% probability it will rain where you live and a 70% probability it won’t rain. Right?

Wrong. It also doesn’t mean it will rain 30% of the day.

To read more, go here

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