Is the RV Industry Blowing Hot Air About Big RV Shipments?

Above, a new Winnebago Class A RV at the California RV Show. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

President Ronald Reagan used to say, "Figures don't lie, but some liars figure!"

This could be the case involving the boom in the RV industry. 

For months, we have been told that people have been snapping up newly-built RVs at a record pace. The numbers may tell a different story. There are manufacturing and delivery numbers and then there are numbers coming from new RV motor vehicle registrations in every state.

According to an article in RV Travel:

Every month, the RV Industry Association (RVIA) produces a report showing just how many new RVs have rolled off the production lines. For the last number of months, the RV industry hype on production statistics has been shouted from the rooftops. The most recent report posted was for August 2021 production numbers. Here’s RVIA’s president, Craig Kirby: “The RV industry set a new monthly shipment record for ten straight months as RV manufacturers and suppliers work together to meet the sustained demand from RV consumers.” By the association’s reckoning, the number of new RVs rolling out this past August beat that same month’s production in 2020 by nearly 34%.

But a closer look at the numbers, and comparing them to another set of industry statistics, shows that RVIA’s rooster-crowing may be more hype than reality. To be sure, there has been a greater demand for RVs than in prior history. But analyzing the numbers seems to indicate that industry may not be the golden-egg layer it claims to be. Those eggs may actually turn out to be duds, potentially leaving RV builders in a precarious financial position. It appears to be a matter of RV industry hype versus reality.

Another set of numbers

There’s another, far less widely circulated set of statistics that folks should be scrutinizing. In fact, if we were stock market investors, we’d be real careful to look at these. A small industry group, Statistical Surveys, based in Grand Rapids, Michigan, has for decades crunched numbers for the recreation industry. Included among their customers are RV production and sales concerns. Every month, Statistical Surveys does its own pertinent analysis and produces a report. What’s the report show?

Statistical Surveys’ report to the RV industry shows numbers of recreational vehicles registered. That is, buy a new RV, and the owner – if they want to use the rig – marches down to their state DMV office and registers that RV. It’s really the only practical way to determine exactly how many of those newly minted RVs are actually being sold – not just marching out of a plant and being parked on a dealer lot.

To read more and see what the DMV numbers show, go here.