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| Above, a rainstorm from El Niño year 2018. Photo by Armand Vaquer |
From what I've been reading, this year's monsoon season will be a wimpy one. We can thank El Niño for this.
The average temperature in Jamestown, New Mexico has been around 90°. That's a bit above normal. We can thank El Niño for that as well.
Yes, 2023 will be an El Niño year and it will affect the ocean temperatures that produce our monsoon rains. We did get a little rain last evening. It was raining when I went to bed and it is cloudy outside as I write this.
According to the National Weather Service:
Why is monsoon precipitation typically below average during an El Niño climate pattern? It has to do with a strengthened subtropical jet stream. The west winds associated with this jet allow dry air intrusions from the west to be more frequent compared to average. Why is the subtropical jet stream stronger than average during El Niño? Warmer than average surface waters associated with El Niño lead to above average thunderstorm activity. It’s this increased thunderstorm activity that leads to stronger than average temperature differences between the tropics and the poles and a stronger subtropical jet stream.
The last El Niño year was 2018-2019.
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