No Snow Yet In New Mexico

Above, following a snow storm on November 9, 2020. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

Although last year at this time we already had snowfall in Jamestown, New Mexico. Thus far, there is no precipitation of any kind in the forecast. It would be nice to have some rain so that the dust and pollen can quit giving me allergy problems.

However, advisories have been issued to travelers to not go to or in Yellowstone National Park as a "significant winter storm" is moving into the area. It looks like Wyoming and surrounding states are getting winter early.

After the storm passes, park roads and entrances will be reopened.

We'll have to wait and see when El Niño brings the jet stream down to the Four Corners region.  

El Niño To Bring More Snow To the Four Corners

Above, 2019 New Year's Day snow. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

It looks like this winter will be a colder and snowier one for the Four Corners region of the U.S.

I received an email from AccuWeather that indicates that snowfall will be much more this year than last year. It will bring excellent skiing conditions for ski resorts in the Four Corners. Purgatory's ski operators in Colorado are likely smiling bigtime!

I'll be making good use of the Jeep's four-wheel drive this winter, it appears.

Here's part of the email that pertains to the Southwestern U.S.:

Western US: El Niño to fuel atmospheric rivers

Last winter was one for the history books in California as an onslaught of atmospheric rivers dumped monumental snowfall in the mountains that helped ski resorts remain open until July and flooding rainfall that filled many water reservoirs across the region.

 

A repeat is possible this winter across California, Nevada and the Four Corners region, which includes Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, due to the anticipated weather patterns shaped by El Niño. Most El Niños typically result in a stormy pattern over California with frequent rain and mountain snow, while storms largely miss the Pacific Northwest.

The upcoming season does look like it will follow the traditional El Niño pattern with the jet stream directing storms into California, Nevada and the Four Corners. This differs from the El Niño of 2015-2016 when storms largely avoided California. Pastelok added that cooler waters southeast of Hawaii could cause the storm track this winter to focus on areas south of Southern California occasionally.

El Niño Year

Above, a rainstorm from El Niño year 2018. Photo by Armand Vaquer

From what I've been reading, this year's monsoon season will be a wimpy one. We can thank El Niño for this.

The average temperature in Jamestown, New Mexico has been around 90°. That's a bit above normal. We can thank El Niño for that as well.

Yes, 2023 will be an El Niño year and it will affect the ocean temperatures that produce our monsoon rains. We did get a little rain last evening. It was raining when I went to bed and it is cloudy outside as I write this.

According to the National Weather Service:

Why is monsoon precipitation typically below average during an El Niño climate pattern? It has to do with a strengthened subtropical jet stream. The west winds associated with this jet allow dry air intrusions from the west to be more frequent compared to average. Why is the subtropical jet stream stronger than average during El Niño? Warmer than average surface waters associated with El Niño lead to above average thunderstorm activity. It’s this increased thunderstorm activity that leads to stronger than average temperature differences between the tropics and the poles and a stronger subtropical jet stream.

 The last El Niño year was 2018-2019. 

The Rainstorm & The Beast

Above, The Beast at Reseda Automotive. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

A winter storm has arrived, and it is the first real rainstorm to help relieve a parched California.

Sure, we've had some rains here and there, mainly light drizzles and occasional showers, but this is the first sustained rainstorm of the season, courtesy of El Niño. It has been long in coming.

I heard on the radio that California could get a foot of rain this month. That would put a big dent into the drought.

Of course, it had to hit on the day I had an appointment to have The Beast serviced (oil change, etc.) at Reseda Automotive. But, the job has been completed and The Beast is ready for the next road trip. I decided to switch from regular motor oil to synthetic oil. It will last longer and protect engine parts much better (The Beast has a Ford V10 Triton engine).

This rain also forced me to buy an umbrella to keep in The Beast. This was something I had intended to do anyway.

Now to dry off indoors.

"Godzilla El Niño" Coming?

Above, the Godzilla slide in Yokosuka, Japan. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

With Legendary Pictures' Godzilla 2 not due in theaters until 2018, Toho's own production is set to go into production in a few weeks for a 2016 release.

2016, as it seems to be turning out, will be a Godzilla year in another way as something else is lurking in the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

According to the Los Angeles Times:

The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California. 

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.” 

“This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

If we do have "a Godzilla El Niño", should we call it the "King of the El Niños"? God knows we in California can use it to eliminate the effects of the current drought. If it does come to pass, we should have a great river-rafting season next year!

To read more, go here.